What impact does artificial intelligence have on energy demand?
Data centers, including those that power generative artificial intelligence, are increasingly using electricity. Yet they are expected to account for only a small share of overall electricity demand growth through 2030.
The Price of Magic
Using ChatGPT, Perplexity or Claude, one can only be amazed at the speed of calculation of generative artificial intelligence (AI). This "magic" that seems to reason, search the internet and create content from scratch requires computer data centers to function. And who says computer centers says significant electricity consumption.
Business Logic
Martin Deron, project manager for the Chemins de transition digital challenge, a research project affiliated with the Université de Montréal, notes that a few years ago, the carbon footprint of digital came mainly from the manufacturing of devices such as phones, tablets and computers. “The impact of the data centres where we store our data was less significant in our total digital footprint,” he says. “Also, the companies that own these centres have a business logic. They try to minimize costs, particularly energy costs.”
6%
This dynamic has led to data centers becoming much more efficient. From 2010 to 2018, they increased their capacity by more than 550% worldwide. However, the total energy they consume has only increased by 6%, according to a study published in 2020 in the journal Science . “So even if our digital uses have increased, the carbon footprint of data centers has not increased that much because of innovation and technical improvements,” says Martin Deron. “However, generative AI is challenging this.”
Demand on the rise
The demands for training models, as well as generating new data, require the establishment of more data centers. "And the centers are reaching the limit of available energy. We hear that companies like Microsoft, Google or Amazon are going to launch or restart power plants to produce the electricity they need. Everything suggests that the demand for energy in this sector will increase in the coming years."
By 2030
The world’s data centers account for about 2% of electricity demand today. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that data center electricity demand will account for about 3% of the increase in global electricity demand by 2030, partly due to AI. Other uses, such as industrial needs, buildings, electric vehicles, and air conditioning and heating, are expected to account for a much larger share of electricity demand growth.
Local demand
In a recent analysis , 1 Oxford University data scientist Hannah Ritchie noted that data center demand for electricity is highly localized and is likely to affect certain locations more than overall electricity consumption. “For example, Microsoft has made a deal to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. But Three Mile Island can only produce 0.2% of the electricity produced in the United States each year, or 0.02% of the electricity produced globally each year,” Ritchie wrote . “There is still a lot of uncertainty. The demand for energy from AI will increase, but perhaps less than we think.”
